2024年考博英語寫作素材：新冠病毒和市場動(dòng)蕩
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Start with the first, volatility. Equity market instability might feed on itself.
The VIX, which measures the expected volatility implied by the price of options on the S&P 500 index,
vaulted from around 15 to above 27 in a matter of days. Some investment strategies are particularly sensitive to it.
For example when volatility is low, they allow for a bigger weighting of equities in portfolios.
But when it rises and stays high, some investors are forced to unload some of their holdings—creating yet more volatility.
Some exchange-traded funds whose value is linked to the VIX saw outflows.
It is likely that at least some investors have been betting on continued near-dormant volatility.
The resilience of such strategies could be tested.
A bigger worry is credit markets and in particular corporate debt, which has soared over the past decade.
A sharp rise in borrowing costs would hurt firms that need to roll-over maturing bonds
and would also rattle America"s huge private-credit markets.
The last big global growth scare, in late 2018, caused a panicky sell-off that briefly threatened to become a credit-crunch.
So far the interest-rate spread over Treasuries demanded by investors to hold high-yield corporate paper
has widened to 4.3 percentage points, with much of the impact felt by energy-sector bonds. That is cause for concern, not alarm.
But new issuance has halted—by February 26th Wall Street had gone three days without any high-grade offerings, according to Bloomberg.
If that continues there will be a corporate liquidity squeeze.
Interest-rate cuts cannot do much to remedy the disruption. But they can help to soothe credit markets.
Easier policy from the Federal Reserve has in the past—notably in 1998—
been fuel for a late-cycle rally in risk assets in the face of formidable headwinds.
A fortnight ago, just a single interest-rate cut from the Fed was priced in by the markets,
says Kit Juckes of Societe Generale, a French bank. Now two are.
"We may be pricing in a third, if not a fourth, within a few weeks unless there"s a dramatic change in the covid-19 news."
首先是波動(dòng)性。股市的不穩(wěn)定可能會(huì)自食其果。
衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)期權(quán)價(jià)格隱含預(yù)期波動(dòng)率的VIX指數(shù)
在幾天內(nèi)從15左右升至27以上。一些投資策略對(duì)它特別敏感。
例如，當(dāng)波動(dòng)性較低時(shí)，它們?cè)试S在投資組合中賦予股票更大的權(quán)重。
但當(dāng)它上升并保持在高位時(shí)，一些投資者被迫拋售他們持有的一些股票，這就造成了更大的波動(dòng)。
一些價(jià)值與VIX掛鉤的交易所交易基金出現(xiàn)了資金外流。
至少有一些投資者可能一直押注持續(xù)接近隱匿的波動(dòng)性。
這些策略的彈性是可以檢驗(yàn)的。
更令人擔(dān)憂的是信貸市場，尤其是過去10年飆升的公司債務(wù)。
?
借貸成本的急劇上升將會(huì)傷害那些需要對(duì)到期債券進(jìn)行展期的公司，
同時(shí)也會(huì)使美國龐大的私人信貸市場陷入混亂。
上一次全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長恐慌發(fā)生在2018年末，當(dāng)時(shí)引發(fā)了恐慌性拋售，并一度有演變成信貸緊縮的危險(xiǎn)。
到目前為止，投資者持有高收益公司債券所需的國債息差
已擴(kuò)大至4.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，其中大部分影響來自能源板塊的債券。這值得擔(dān)心，但不必恐慌。
根據(jù)彭博社報(bào)道，新的發(fā)行已經(jīng)停止——到2月26日，華爾街已經(jīng)三天沒有任何高等級(jí)債券發(fā)行。
如果這種情況持續(xù)下去，將出現(xiàn)企業(yè)流動(dòng)性緊縮。
降息并不能彌補(bǔ)這種混亂。但它們可以幫助穩(wěn)定信貸市場。
過去，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)早期較為寬松的政策——尤其是在1998年——
曾推動(dòng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)在面臨可怕逆風(fēng)的情況下在晚周期出現(xiàn)反彈。
法國興業(yè)銀行的Kit Juckes表示兩周前，
市場已經(jīng)消化了美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一次降息的影響?，F(xiàn)在是兩次。
“除非關(guān)于Covid-19的新聞出現(xiàn)戲劇性變化，否則在幾周內(nèi)， 市場可能不是要消化第四次就是第三次。
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